Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Obama must not buy same NK story for 3rd time'

Washington must put concrete changes from Pyongyang ahead of any carrots to avoid being duped for a third time over its nuclear program, a leading expert warned Tuesday amid a flurry of diplomacy over stalled multilateral negotiations.

The remark from Victor Cha, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), came as sources here said a high-ranking North Korean official was headed to New York for meetings with U.S. diplomats.

Speculation has been soaring over possible resumption of the six-party talks on Pyongyang’s denuclearization since last week, when the nuclear envoys of South and North Korea agreed to make joint efforts to restart the forum.

But many remain skeptical over whether the North is willing to give up the nuclear program that has become its most potent source of leverage. In the past, Pyongyang has made agreements under the six-party framework before creating obstacles and walking out.

“Pundits will call for a bigger and better agreement this time,” said Cha, a former deputy head of the U.S. delegation for the six-party talks. “After 25 years and two agreements in 1994 and 2005, I am less confident that such an agreement is attainable.

“The administration must avoid buying the same nuclear horse from (North Korea) for a third time.”

The visit to New York by Kim Kye-gwan, the North’s first vice foreign minister, is considered here as part of a second phase of diplomacy to pave the way back to negotiations.

The North raised the stakes once again last November by revealing a sprawling uranium enrichment program before shelling Yeonpyeong Island and killing four South Koreans.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the meetings would be “exploratory” and that she would not reward the North for "talking for talk's sake."

Cha warned, however, that “this outwardly tough position belies the fact that Pyongyang would rather have bilateral official dialogue with (Washington) over the six-party talks any day.”

To avoid the North’s usual tactics, Cha said one carrot that should be removed is any rescinding of international sanctions for its nuclear test in 2009.

The administration should also build on the nascent human rights dialogue it started with Pyongyang in May, when human rights envoy Robert King visited the Stalinist state.

“After all, any positive steps by Pyongyang to address international criticism of human rights abuses would make any future negotiations by the regime on nukes more credible,” Cha said.

Despite the caveat, Cha said Obama had “clear tactical reasons” for reengagement, citing a CSIS study that the North is far less likely to engage in provocative acts while sitting down with U.S. officials.

Still, he said the onus remains with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il when it comes to denuclearization.

“If he wants anyone to believe he is serious this time, he needs to put real nuclear dismantlement on the table, including the removal of fresh fuel rods that feed the plutonium reactor, a shutdown and inspection of their uranium program, and the removal of additional fissile materials from the country,” the expert said.

Almost three years have passed since the last full round of six-party talks, which Pyongyang walked away from to protest international sanctions.


Seja o primeiro a comentar

Post a Comment